The preliminary results of the October 25 local elections in Armenia point to a major victory for Nikol Pashinyan. Elections were in fact held in 21 communities, but party lists competed in only 19. In the other two—Fioletovo, home to a Russian Molokan community, and Shamiram, home to a Yazidi community—voters elected their local leaders under the majoritarian system. Under Armenia’s Electoral Code, this system applies to communities with 4,000 or fewer registered voters, while larger communities use proportional representation. Residents there therefore chose their own leaders from among individual candidates rather than party lists.
Of the 19 communities where party lists competed, Civil Contract came first on its own in 16 and through alliances in Goris and Gavar. Only in Stepanavan got the second rank. The fact that the ruling party, which received nearly 50 percent of the nationwide vote in June, exceeded 90 percent in some communities does not mean that its support has doubled. Even the boundaries of some communities have changed. But the opposition's failures to act have contributed to this picture just as much as its actions.
In some communities, Civil Contract won not by defeating its rivals but by bringing them over to its side. In Goris, Mayor Arush Arushanyan, who defeated the ruling party in 2021 while in detention on vote-buying charges, this time headed the list of an alliance formed with the ruling party. Gurgen Martirosyan, the winner in Gavar in 2021, and Aharon Khachatryan, who had taken office in Vardenis with the support of an opposition coalition, also joined Civil Contract.
Failing to offer voters a choice
In Armavir, Akhuryan, Vardenis, Garni and Vayk, no other party list challenged Civil Contract. Voters could vote "no" to the ruling party on the ballot, but they could not choose an alternative programme. According to CivilNet, the number of competing political forces declined in 11 of the 19 communities. In Artashat, the number of lists fell from six to three, and in Hrazdan from four to two.
Here, the most striking example is Strong Armenia. In June, Narek Karapetyan had told his voters that the struggle would continue in local communities in the autumn. In September, he declared, "Of course we will participate in the elections." Yet the alliance appeared on the ballot in only three of the 19 communities: under its own name in Stepanavan, and through its member New Era Party in Artashat and Yeghegnadzor. It did not even field a candidate in Tumanyan, where it had received the support of one in four voters in June. The Armenia Alliance did not compete anywhere under its own name, while its member, Dashnaktsutyun (Armenian Revolutionary Federation) fielded lists in only four communities. Prosperous Armenia was entirely absent.
Of course, not every party is obliged to participate in every election. But the fact that political forces aspiring to govern the country only a few months ago could not even field candidates in many communities cannot be explained as electoral tactics. It is a matter of responsibility towards the voters whose support they sought.
Fielding candidates is not enough either
The picture is hardly encouraging in the communities where the opposition did compete. New Era, a member of the Strong Armenia alliance, stayed at around 3 percent in Artashat and 5 percent in Yeghegnadzor. Dashnaktsutyun received between 9 and 15 percent in four communities. Ishkhan Saghatelyan described this as “significant support despite unprecedented pressure.” Yet the party's vote share in Hrazdan was virtually unchanged from 2021.
The report of the Independent Observer alliance offers clues to this weakness. According to observers, the contest in Artashat was effectively between Civil Contract and Dashnaktsutyun. In Hrazdan and Tsaghkadzor, however, Dashnaktsutyun's campaign was passive and barely visible. Observers found no evidence that its candidates had been subjected to pressure in these communities. In Artik, although four political forces fielded candidates, only Civil Contract ran an active campaign. In Goris, the opposition branded the mayor a "traitor" and relied on a narrative of security threats.
In my previous articles, I discussed why politics built solely on being against someone offers no way out. We can now see what this looks like at the municipal ballot box. Objecting to those in power is one thing; presenting a credible alternative is quite another. Criticising a leader is easy but explaining to voters how the town they live in could be better governed is much harder.
Indeed, the two challengers who genuinely tested the ruling party came not from the parliamentary opposition but from political circles close to the government. In Stepanavan, Mayor Armen Grigoryan, who had been elected on Civil Contract's list in 2021, came first this time on the Gortsarar (Business) Party list. In Yeghegnadzor, the mayor heading the list of the Republic Party, which CivilNet describes as largely pro-government, finished only a few hundred votes behind Civil Contract. The fact that Strong Armenia received 20 percent in Stepanavan even while its leading candidate was under arrest shows that voters do respond when a political force actually enters the contest.
Does pressure explain everything?
The Independent Observer’s report records cases in which Civil Contract candidates put pressure on opposition candidates and their supporters. It describes the use of administrative resources through the employees of municipal institutions as the “backbone” of the ruling party’s local campaign. In Stepanavan, Strong Armenia's leading candidate, Arsen Gevorgyan, was arrested on vote-buying charges four days before the election. Opposition candidates were detained in Artik and Martuni on the eve of the elections, and the mayor of Yeghegnadzor was also reportedly detained. That said, it should also be noted that Strong Armenia candidates faced various vote-buying allegations during the parliamentary elections as well, and those cases are still ongoing. It would be wrong to draw conclusions from unresolved cases, but the timing of these actions calls for transparent investigations.
Still, pressure is not enough to explain why an alliance that became the main opposition in June failed to field lists in 16 of the 19 communities. After the elections, Karapetyan argued that the ruling party received fewer votes where Strong Armenia competed, while it dominated through pressure where the alliance was absent. This statement actually describes the problem itself. If you believe your presence weakens the ruling party, why were you present in only three communities?
A government seeking rivals, an opposition waiting for space
Pashinyan is not happy with the picture either. He said he was uncomfortable with results exceeding 70, 80 and 90 percent, and that Armenia needs a democratic, “state-centered” opposition. He also acknowledged that an opposition created by the government itself would be "controlled." But calling some of his rivals a “spy opposition” in the same speech is contradictory. It is not for the government to decide which opposition is legitimate. Its responsibility is to protect the space in which political forces can organise freely.
Nor can the opposition wait for the government to open space for it. Developing credible local political figures, preparing municipal programmes and remaining accountable to voters even after defeat are its own responsibilities. In June, I wrote that the opposition had failed to offer voters a positive vision of the future. Local elections were the easiest opportunity to tell that story through a town’s roads, water and schools.
Ultimately, the promise of the political transformation that began in 2018 was not that one party would keep winning indefinitely, but that citizens would have a say in politics. That requires an opposition that does not merely criticize the government but can hold it to account, and that can convince voters it is capable of taking over when needed.
Perhaps the clearest message of October 25 is this: if you want to defeat those in power, you must first face the voters and then tell them why they should choose you.
