According to a poll conducted in Armenia last month by the International Republican Institute (IRI), the ruling Civil Contract Party leads in voter preferences three months before the elections, while 30% of participants remain undecided.
The study regarding the parliamentary elections on June 7 was conducted via telephone calls with 1,506 participants.
When asked which political party or alliance they would vote for if national elections were held next Sunday, 24% of participants stated they would support the Civil Contract Party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The second most prominent party was the Strong Armenia Party, led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, receiving 9% support.
Other parties received smaller percentages. The Armenia Alliance, led by former president Robert Kocharyan and including the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, received approximately 3% support. Another 3% stated they would vote for the Prosperous Armenia Party, led by billionaire Gagik Tsarukyan.
Pashinyan is weak in Yerevan
However, a large portion of participants—30%—stated they have not yet decided who to vote for. While 8% said they would definitely not vote, 5% stated they would deliberately invalidate their ballots to ensure their votes are counted but do not go to any party.
When results are calculated to include participants who indicated a high probability of voting, support for Civil Contract rises to 29%, while Strong Armenia sees 11% support. The poll also revealed that 69% of participants are certain of their choices and will not change their minds before election day.
Support for the Civil Contract Party appears weaker in Yerevan. Only 15% of those surveyed in Yerevan said they would vote for the ruling party. Support rises to 25% in other cities and to 31% in rural areas. Armenia's population is distributed equally among these three categories.
Support for the Strong Armenia party, led by Samvel Karapetyan, appears to be evenly distributed geographically: there is approximately 9-10% support among participants in Yerevan, other cities, and rural communities. Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance shows a different geographical distribution: it receives 5% in Yerevan and approximately 2% in rural areas.
Generational gap
The poll also reveals generational differences in voter preferences. The Civil Contract Party shows its strongest performance among voters aged 56 and older, with 34% support. Among young voters aged 18-35, the rate of those saying they would vote for the ruling party is 12%, while support for Karapetyan's Strong Armenia Party in the same age group remained at 10%.
Political disappointment is also evident among younger participants. 14% of voters aged 18-35 stated they do not intend to vote, while 34% said they are undecided.
Among participants who said they would not vote, the most frequently cited reasons were a lack of trust in any party or political leader (20%), the belief that their vote would not matter (13%), and distrust in the electoral process (12%).
(Civilnet)
